An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

On the approximation of the canard explosion point in singularly perturbed systems without an explicit small parameter

A canard explosion is the dramatic change of period and amplitude of a limit cycle of a system of nonlinear ODEs in a very narrow interval of the bifurcation parameter. It occurs in slow–fast systems and is well understood in singular perturbation problems where a small parameter epsilon defines the time-scale separation. We present an iterative algorithm for the determination of the canard explosion point which can be applied for a general slow–fast system without an explicit small parameter. We also present assumptions under which the algorithm gives accurate estimates of the canard explosion point. Finally, we apply the algorithm to the van der Pol equations, a Templator model for a self-replicating system and a model for intracellular calcium oscillations with no explicit small parameters and obtain very good agreement with results from numerical simulations.     

Static pentane extraction as a potential alternative to Soxhlet extraction for polypropylene olive oil overall migration limit measurements

Static pentane extraction of olive oil from polypropylene was evaluated as a safer, higher throughput alternative to pentane Soxhlet extraction for the recovery of olive oil from polypropylene for overall migration limit determinations. Static, ambient temperature, pentane extraction achieved quantitative recovery of olive oil from polypropylene plaques prepared by using the OM‐5 overall migration limit protocol. In addition to validation data for static extractions, a modified esterification procedure is presented as a means to accommodate the larger sample sets that are enabled with static extraction.     

基于滑模的运载器主动段俯仰通道姿控系统设计

与传统比例-积分-微分（PID）控制方法相比，滑模控制（SMC）方法可以比较容易地将不确定性纳入控制器设计中，从而增强系统的鲁棒性。探索了SMC技术在运载器主动段姿态控制中的工程应用，首先通过分析基于趋近律的SMC系统，提出了降低不连续切换项系数的需求，然后研究了基于干扰上界的SMC方法。三通道小偏差仿真结果验证了两种方法的控制效果，表明第2种控制器的鲁棒性更好，稳态误差小，同时发动机喷管摆角需求较小。     

Designing the framework of technological entrepreneurship ecosystem: A grounded theory approach in the context of Iran

The ecosystem approach, as a comprehensive way of understanding multi-aspect environments, has recently gained so much attention in entrepreneurship and innovation studies. The application of this approach has led to the introduction of the currently available ecosystem frameworks that are dealing with some issues such as infirm structure and heterogeneity of components. In this research, by adopting the grounded theory approach in the context of Iran, we defined a novel and comprehensive framework for the technological entrepreneurship ecosystem (TEE). Twenty-six in-depth and semi-structured interviews have been conducted and analysed through a modified grounded theory procedure. Seventy-four secondary sources were added to the study to expand the breadth of our analysis and reach a stronger saturation. The concluded framework comprised of four interconnected layers representing environmental conditions, entity domains, functional realms, and tech-entrepreneurial agents. In addition, we identified some general principles and rules as important underlying aspects of this framework. The inferred components and structure of this novel framework not only could enable us to design the relations between the ecosystem components, but also prompt and support further research on each dimension of the ecosystem.     

Lewis acid-oxygen vacancy interfacial synergistic catalysis over SO42−/Ce0.84Zr0.16O2–WO3–ZrO2 for N,N-diethylation of aniline with ethanol

Herein, a new mechanism involving Lewis acid-oxygen vacancy interfacial synergistic catalysis for aniline N,N-diethylation with ethanol was proposed, and the SO₄²⁻/Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂–WO₃–ZrO₂ catalyst (SCWZ) with both Lewis acid sites and oxygen vacancies was synthesized by the hydrothermal method, which shows better catalytic activity than the reported solid acidic catalysts. Besides, the SO₄²⁻/ZrO₂ (SZ) and SO₄²⁻/WO₃–ZrO₂ (SWZ) catalysts were also prepared and compared with SCWZ to investigate the synergistic effect of each component. The SO₄²⁻ and WO₃ mainly generate Lewis acid by bonding with ZrO₂, which is beneficial for the fracture of the N–H bond in aniline. The Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂ solid solution mainly plays a vital role in generating the oxygen vacancies as the interface active species, which can participate in stripping –OH from ethanol, then the carbocation will also be released, which only needs 1.3805 kcal/mol energy, calculated by density functional theory (DFT), to be input. In comparison, the traditional reaction mechanism needs the Brønsted acidic sites to promote the protonation of ethanol, then dehydration and subsequent formation of carbocation followed, and 108.6846 kcal/mol energy needs to be input, which is far higher than that of the new mechanism. The apparent activation energy (E_a) over SCWZ was measured by experiment to be 34.09 kJ/mol, which is much lower than that of SWZ (47.10 kJ/mol) and SZ (54.37 kJ/mol), illustrating comparatively preferable kinetics for SCWZ than that of SWZ and SZ. Besides, the conversion of aniline and selectivity to N,N-diethylaniline over SCWZ reach almost 100% and 73%, respectively. The SCWZ can be renewed for 4 times without rapid deactivation, and the longevity of SCWZ is longer than that of SWZ and SZ, as the loaded SO₄²⁻ and tetragonal ZrO₂ are stabilized by Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂ and WO₃, respectively.     

神经网络全局势函数在多相催化中的应用

当今的多相催化研究需要新的技术和方法从原子尺度上表征活性中心结构和反应中间体。本文作者课题组近期开发了理论模拟新技术来探索催化剂活性位点结构，即基于神经网络势函数的大规模原子模拟（LASP）软件中实现的全局神经网络势函数计算方法。本文介绍了该方法可以显著降低催化体系的计算代价，而维持与密度泛函理论同一级别的计算精度，从而解决多相催化中的许多复杂问题。本文对神经网络势函数方法的实现细节和目前已实现的应用场景进行了详细介绍。神经网络势函数可以用来预测材料晶体结构，理解高压氢化条件下TiO₂表面的结构演化和确定三元氧化物ZnCrO晶相中合成气制甲醇活性位点。最后文章分析了神经网络势函数的局限性和今后可能的三个研究方向，即材料性质预测、多元素体系神经网络势函数构造和化学反应拟合。     

Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

铝合金三角形波纹夹芯板对平头弹抗冲击特性数值模拟研究

为研究铝合金三角形波纹夹芯板对平头弹体的抗冲击性能及损伤特性，利用有限元软件ABAQUS/Explicit建立弹体冲击靶板的数值模拟模型，并结合实验验证了模型及其参数的有效性。基于数值计算结果，分析了三角形波纹夹芯板几何结构对其防护性能、失效模式和能量吸收的影响规律及机理，并与等面密度单层板进行对比分析，研究结果表明，靶体几何结构对其抗冲击性能存在影响，三角形波纹夹芯板抗冲击性能低于单层板抗冲击性能。此外，增加芯体拓扑结构夹角能显著提高三角形波纹夹芯板的抗冲击性能，并且靶板几何形状会对其失效模式及耗能特性存在影响。     

Quantitative structure-properties relationship,molecular dynamic simulations and designs of some novel lubricant additives

Quantitative structure-properties relationship (QSPR) method was used to design some novel antioxidant lubricant additives, while molecular dynamics simulations were used to calculate their dynamic binding energies on steel and to hydrogen-containing DLC (a-C: H) crystal surfaces. 29 synthesized antioxidant lubricant additives were collected from literature and geometrically optimized by Spartan’14 version 1.1.2 software while Genetic Function Algorithm (GFA) method of the material studio version 8.0 software was used to build the predictive QSPR model. Four novel antioxidant lubricant additives were successfully designed out of which E)-3-(4-((3-amino-4-methylphenyl)diazenyl)-5-hydroxy-4H-pyrazol-3-yl)-2-argio-6,7-difluoroquinazolin-4(3H)-one with excellent property of 3.531295 (KOH/g) was found to be better than the one reported by other researchers. The dynamic binding energy results revealed that one of the designed additives was excellently bound to steel (?1120.11 kcal/mol) and to hydrogen-containing DLC (a-C: H) crystals surface (7814.156 kcal/mol) surfaces than its co-additives. This investigation shows that the entire studied antioxidant lubricant additive was found to be better bound to the steel surface than hydrogen-containing DLC (a-C: H) crystals surface. This study will help in synthesizing novel anti-oxidant lubricant additives with better additive properties that will slow the tendency of oil to oxidize and will not possess a threat to the environment as the structures do not contain zinc and phosphorus that could limit the operation of the catalytic converter in the exhaust pipe.